Thursday 9 June 2016

How Bernie Sanders Cost Me Twenty Bucks

So, I appear to have definitely thrown away 20 bucks.



In Australia, where you can gamble on pretty much everything, including foreign elections, I chose to have a stab at 26-1 odds for Bernie Sanders to become the Democratic nominee and the US president, even though he had just lost many of the first Super Tuesday primaries. I am a bit of a tragic for American politics, and with kerazy Donald Trump running on the ballot, this one looked to be a real popcorn grabber.


via GIPHY


This whole election has been interesting to watch from an outside perspective. The subtle methods of electioneering employed in America are truly despicable and insidious. There have been a few media blackouts in certain key points in the campaign, there is obvious partisan reporting in some instances, certain caucuses were difficult for people wanting to vote for candidates directly with large lines in Nevada and Massachusetts blocking access to small and ill-chosen polling places. To top all this off, the debate on large news networks has been so narrow and restricted, as forewarned by Noam Chomsky in his essay Manufacturing Consent.

Sanders has been a hope for the true economic Left since he began his run. He had big support and big numbers, and I truly think he could have gained the nomination if he rocked the vote (particularly with young people), but he just couldn't. He has had to run a pretty smear-free campaign, and nothing motivates feet to the pool booths like anger, as opposed to his choice to focus on empathy and unity. He targeted the banks, and big finance, and to anyone who was truly tuned in, this meant he was targeting Hillary Clinton, with her intimate ties to the finance sector. This did not, however, translate in a larger share of the popular vote, with Sanders losing the key state of California only a few days ago 55 to 43.

Americans now have the two candidates on their ticket that have their lowest favourables in history. Apathy will be rampant this election due to people seeing this as a being a vote between two rich douches who neither want nor need their allegiance to rule them.

And those people are right. Some, perhaps myself included, are beginning to wonder about Bernie, despite his stellar voting record and principled stances spanning 30 years. There is an argument that candidates like Bernie are establishment tools, kind of a Democratic 'sheepdog', herding members of the DNC who were exploring political options further to the left (such as Jill Stein of the Green Party) diverting their enthusiasm and activism early on in the process, until there is no time left to win ballot access for alternative parties or candidates.

The margin of error is controlled by superdelegates,  It was really quite distracting and confusing in the beginning of the primary elections and caucuses.

I'm winning already, yayyy!


If, like in 2008, a candidate polls very favourably and takes the nation's popular vote by storm, superdelegates are able to change preference at the July convention and put their considerable nomination weight behind their preferred candidate. In the meantime however, it's a bit like starting counting with a significant handicap. Groupthink is a thing and should not be understated especially among low-information voters. This person's winning already? Oh, it's Hillary Clinton, I know her. Sign me up! (For what it's worth, by the time Hillary had won most of the Southern states, her gambling odds were a paltry $1.40 : 1 to become the next US President.)

Appearing on the scene, presenting himself to undecided voters, and taking the nomination to the Democratic National Convention in July. This was Bernie's plan, and my plan for turning $20 into $520. I saw the fire and enthusiasm shown in the Bernie camp, and chose to optimistically believe that a crazy-haired socialist Jew could actually garner enough support to enact real change in the economic system of America, with perhaps even knock on effects for the globe.

It was long odds for a reason, and I knew that when I made the punt it was analogous to wagering the next PM of Australia would be Richard De Natale after July 2. A lot of noise was being made about #feelingthebern yet again, without a larger share of young people actively participating in the DNC primaries, Bernie was not able to challenge the much larger Clinton household name.

I suppose we are all naive when we make bets at long odds. This is why there are, like, 219 different apps in Australia to gamble on all sorts of ridiculous markets. Gambling is a fundamentally optimistic endeavour.

With that, I suppose I am glad I backed a long shot to win me five hundred bucks in a surprise upset at the posts. It felt nice having optimism that someone like Bernie who genuinely gives a shit could have a real go, cause a real upset, and dare I say it, treat the population of America (and those on the receiving end of America's foreign and economic policy [i.e. almost everyone]) like human beings, individual thinking adults capable of seeing the real problems facing the globe and addressing them. This may or may not be rationalising my idiotic waste of $20 but fuck it, it's a nice touchy feely end to my blog so I'm leaving it in.

It felt good for a while, but now we get to wait until November to watch the USA vote between a douche and a turd, once again. How far will the pendulum swing? Who gives a shit. Probably not far enough. I'm sure our election in Australia on July 2nd will be equally thrilling, if the zero people I've heard talk/argue/give any modicum of a shit about it is any indication.


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